Following a drift lower from the post-OPEC+ production cut high, crude oil prices are once again ready to follow an upward trajectory. Strategists at TD Securities have upgraded their oil forecast.

Oil unlikely to be in triple figure territory 

“We are comfortable in saying that the most recent production targets from OPEC+ have very convincingly tilted price risks to the upside. For that reason, we have upgraded our Q4-22 WTI forecast to $94/b ($99/b Brent) and the 2023 average to $97/b ($101/b).”

“Despite an expected tightening of supply-demand dynamics, a surge into triple digits in the coming months is not yet expected, as it looks increasingly likely that the decline in global demand growth will likely offset much of the OPEC+ cuts.” 

“Given tight S-D and historically low inventories, a convincing move into $100+ territory is more probable when market is ready to call when the economy will stabilize and the Fed pivots.”