• USD/INR remains mildly offered amid broad US dollar pullback.
• Fears of RBI intervention, firmer oil prices challenge the pair traders amid sluggish Asian session.
• Firmer US data, hawkish Fedspeak keeps buyers hopeful even as intermediate pullbacks remain on the table.

USD/INR bulls take a breather around 82.35, mostly sluggish after a two-day uptrend, during the initial hours of Monday’s Indian session. In doing so, the Indian rupee (INR) pair portrays the market’s indecision amid the hopes of the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention, as well as firmer oil prices and the US dollar’s retreat, inactive start to the week.

Although the RBI’s latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes raised doubts about the Indian central bank’s next move, it's market meddling around 82.40 teases the pair traders of late. “The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) may become more data-dependant in deciding on the key interest rate with inflation expected to start easing, minutes of the latest meeting suggested on Friday,” reported Reuters.

Elsewhere, the US dollar’s pullback appears to favor the USD/INR sellers amid a lack of major data/events. That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) helps gold buyers to consolidate recent losses amid a light calendar day. That said, the DXY drops by 0.26% to around 113.00 by the press time. The greenback’s latest losses could be linked to the cautious optimism in the UK, after the latest political upheaval and comments from the Bank of England (BOE) Governor Andrew Bailey.

Alternatively, an improvement in the crude oil prices, the main challenge India due to its reliance on energy imports, joins the hawkish Fed bets to challenge USD/INR bears. WTI crude oil consolidates the biggest weekly loss since early August as a softer US dollar joins fears of a supply crunch. That said, the black gold price rises 0.70% intraday to regain $85.00 by the press time. US President Joe Biden’s failure to convince the global oil suppliers to put a halt on their output cut decision renews bullish bias for the energy benchmark despite economic fears and firmer fundamentals for the US dollar.

Against this backdrop, US 10-year Treasury yields struggle to extend the latest upside near the 4.0% threshold whereas S&P 500 Future ignores Wall Street’s downside close and rises half a percent. It’s worth noting that stocks in India, as well as in the Asia-Pacific region prints mild losses amid China’s pledge for zero-covid policy and fears of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike in November, backed by the recent US data and Fedspeak.

Looking forward, USD/INR traders should pay attention to the US Treasury yields, as they fade upside momentum at the multi-year high, amid an absence of major data catalysts.

Technical analysis

Not even short-term USD/INR weakness is expected unless the quote breaks the 10-DMA support of 82.20.