The likelihood of EUR/USD breaking above the 0.9900 mark remains on the rise, according to UOB Group’s Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “The strong surge in EUR to a high of 0.9852 came as a surprise (we were expecting range-trading). The rapid rise has gained considerable momentum and further EUR strength appears likely. That said, in view of the overbought conditions, a sustained rise above 0.9900 is unlikely. Support is at 0.9815, followed by 0.9780.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Our latest narrative was last Friday (14 Oct, spot at 0.9775) where EUR is likely to trade within a broad consolidation range of 0.9630/0.9900. Yesterday (17 Oct), EUR soared to a high of 0.9852 before closing on a strong note at 0.9838 (+1.22%). Upward momentum is beginning to build and the risk of a break above the top of the expected range at 0.9900 is increasing. The chance of a clear break above 0.9900 will continue to increase as long as EUR does not move below 0.9730 (‘strong support’ level) within the next few days. Looking ahead, a clear break of 0.9900 will shift the focus to 0.9950, a critical resistance level.”