The European Central Bank (ECB) is due to announce its interest rate decision today. In the view of economists at ING, the EUR/USD could edge higher towards 1.02 on the day.

A hawkish ECB has not helped the euro so far this year

“The ECB has surprised hawkishly all year – but EUR/USD has generally ended ECB policy days weaker. It feels like investors use the liquidity provided around ECB event risk to offload euros.” 

“We have a slightly softer environment today and EUR/USSD has firmly broken out of this year's bear channel. That could point to EUR/USD risk on the day to 1.0200.”

“If EUR/USD does find something bearish in the release, ideally it would now need to break back below the 0.9920/0.9950 area to return us to the bear trend.”

See – ECB Preview: Forecasts from 15 major banks, no obstacles to a 75 bps hike