Gold remains well below levels that would be consistent with a renewed uptrend over the coming quarter. In the view of strategists at TD Securities, trend reversal threshold around $1,780 in the yellow metal appears attractive.

Downtrend in precious metals will prevail over the coming months

“We remain confident that the downtrend in precious metals prices will prevail over the coming months, but a growing chorus of market participants seek to position for an eventual central bank pivot on the horizon to catalyze a sharp repricing higher in precious metals.” 

“Our analysis argues that price action in Gold would only be consistent with an uptrend north of $1,830 by Mar2023, which appears unlikely as the Fed continues to tighten policy as it battles stubbornly elevated inflation over this timeframe. Notwithstanding, the critical thresholds for a sustained uptrend to form are largely unchanged by Sep2023. And, as we progress through the new year, the likelihood of a new easing cycle at the Fed is expected to rise.” 

“Given we expect an easing cycle to begin in 2023Q4, trend reversal thresholds around $1,780 in Gold and $22 in Silver appear attractive for those looking to position for risks surrounding implications of a Fed pivot by Sep2023, particularly should family offices and proprietary traders capitulate on their bloated long positions.”