India’s headline CPI inflation eased to 6.8% year-on-year. Regarding USDINR, economists at Commerzbank expect the pair to settle between 80-82. 

Good news on inflation

“Headline CPI inflation for October moderated as expected to a three-month low of 6.8% YoY. Inflation remained above RBI’s 2-6% target range for the 10th consecutive month but the good news is that the trend is pointing down and we have probably seen the peak. Inflation should continue to moderate and should fall below 6% in December.”

“For RBI, it has hiked aggressively by 50 bps for the past three meetings. They are still likely to hike again in December but by a smaller amount of 30-40 bps. Domestic demand remains firm and RBI would not want to prematurely end the tightening cycle.” 

“For USDINR, the softer USD has provided some reprieve for INR and we look for consolidation near term between 80-82.”