The dictation of the first Autumn Statement under the leadership of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is unlikely to have major impact on the British Pound. Economists at Credit Suisse highlight the key technical levels to watch on Cable.

The show must not go on

“Tomorrow sees UK Chancellor Hunt release his Autumn Statement. A mixture of spending cuts and tax rises is expected to be announced. But in typical politician fashion, Hunt is likely to backload much of the projected fiscal tightening to 2025 and beyond, i.e., after the next general election due by Jan 2025. Given the gloomy projections for UK growth and likely sticky inflation already priced into UK markets, barring a major surprise we see little likelihood this Autumn Statement will have significant GBP impact.”

“We have assumed the roughly 0.8600-0.8800 EURGBP range in play over the last month is reasonable in this context. Taken together with our near-term EURUSD view, this suggests our former resistance levels for GBPUSD at around 1.1650 should now prove supportive while the 200-day MA at around 1.2240 should be near-term resistance and an attractive long-term sell level.”