According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, the Bank of England (BoE) is seen raising the bank rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50% on December 1.

Key findings

“Over 75% of respondents, 43 of 56, opted for 50 basis points while 13 said 75.”

“December's move by the BoE will be followed by another 75 basis point lift across its two meetings next quarter, with the poll suggesting the Bank will then pause at 4.25%, matching the terminal rate given last month.”

“When asked about the probability of a recession within a year, poll respondents gave a median response of 90%, sharply higher than the 75% given in October.”

“Inflation will peak at 10.7% this quarter. It will then gradually fall, dipping to 10.0% next quarter and then to 7.7%, 6.5% and 4.5% in the following quarters.”