EUR/USD closed above 1.0300 on Tuesday. Economists at Credit Suisse maintain their year-end target at 1.0350.

Upside surprise for the Nov preliminary euro area CPI needed to propel the EUR higher

“Turning to EUR/USD, last week we suggested that the post-US Oct CPI (10 Nov) low at 1.0130 would prove a touch nut to crack, and thus far even the 1.0200 level hasn’t been breached.”

“We see no reason as yet to shift our end-2022 target at 1.0350.”

“With market pricing around 60 bps for the 15 Dec ECB, it will take something special like an upside surprise for the Nov preliminary CPI data on 30 Nov to propel the EUR higher by forcing markets to price in 75 bps. In the meantime, the fact there is an effective floor on what can be priced out still for December also undermines the argument for more EUR weakness in the immediate future.”