• USD/INR retreats from intraday high as softer oil prices favor INR bulls.
• Covid woes weigh on the market sentiment as traders begin the key week.
• India’s Q3 GDP will be crucial ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech, US NFP.

USD/INR remains directionless around 81.70 as it drops from the intraday high during early Monday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Indian Rupee balances the positives from downbeat oil prices to the negatives emanating from China.

WTI crude oil renewed the yearly low around $73.90, near $74.10 by the press time, as fears of increasing supply and less demand, mainly due to the Covid woes, join woes surrounding a limit on Russian oil prices.

It should be noted that the record-high daily virus infections from China and the protests to ease the Zero-Covid policy seemed to challenge the market sentiment of late. On the same line could be the recently downbeat data from Beijing. China’s Industrial Profit dropped to -3.0% during the January to October period versus -2.3% marked for the January-September era.

Reuters mentioned, “Infections rose as hundreds of demonstrators and police clashed in Shanghai on Sunday night as protests over China's stringent COVID restrictions spread to several cities.” The news also quotes China’s National Health Commission to report a fifth straight daily record of 40,347 new COVID-19 infections on Nov. 27, of which 3,822 were symptomatic and 36,525 were asymptomatic.

Amid these plays, the US stock futures drop nearly 0.70% while the US 10-year Treasury yields fall nearly two basis points (bps) to 3.65% by the press time.

Moving on, India’s third quarter (Q3) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, expected 2.6% YoY versus 13.5% prior, will be crucial for the USD/INR traders to watch on Wednesday amid economic fears. Following that, a speech from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell and the United States' monthly employment data for November, up for publishing on Thursday and Friday respectively, will be the key to fresh impulse.

Technical analysis

A daily closing beyond the 21-DMA hurdle surrounding 81.70 appears necessary for the USD/INR bulls to retake control.