Economists at Deutsche Bank expect mild US and European recessions in the first half of 2023 with growth then picking up.

China to register significantly more dynamic growth in the year ahead

“We are expecting a mild recession overall in the Eurozone at the turn of the year. With recovery starting in the second quarter, economic growth for the full year 2023 is likely to be 0.3%. The main risk factor remains energy, coupled with a possible shortage of gas in winter 2023/2024.” 

“If inflation rates continue to decline and there is no need for robust Fed intervention, the US economy could return to growth in the second half of 2023, finishing the year overall at +0.4%.”

“Economic momentum in China is likely to be much stronger next year. We are expecting growth of around 5% in 2023 after an estimated 3.3% this year.”