The market has become very long EUR, and this exposes EUR/USD to the possibility of sharp pullbacks. Economists at Rabobank see the pair at 1.06 on a three-month view.

One-month forecast of EUR/USD 1.09

“While disappointing Eurozone data could be the trigger for pullbacks in the EUR, in view of the lower prices of energy, we would expect the market to look through this. More likely pullbacks in EUR/USD will be triggered by a continued hawkish position by Fed officials. That said, given the pace at which US headline inflation has come down from its highs recently, the market may continue to largely ignore Fed hawks for a while longer”

“We see plenty of opportunity for USD bulls to become re-engaged particularly in a three- to-six-month view. However, to reflect the change in fundamentals, we have lifted our EUR/USD forecasts from previous levels.” 

“Following a one-month forecast of EUR/USD 1.09 we see scope for a move back to 1.06 on a three-month view. This assumes the Fed maintains its forecast of no rate cut until 2024.”