IDR succumbed to Dollar strength in February. Economists at MUFG Bank expect the Rupiah to struggle near-term, but see the USD/IDR moving back lower to 14,700 by end-2023.

Rising US 10-year yields to pose headwinds to the IDR

“We anticipate a roughly balanced current account for 2023, with IDR headwinds from potential financial account outflows in H1 reversing to inflows in H2. Hence, the IDR may face some downside pressures in the near-term as yield differentials with the US narrow further.” 

“We forecast USD/IDR at 15,300 at the end of Q2.”

“At the end of the year, we see USD/IDR at 14,700, helped by a potential shift in US rate stance towards neutrality, China’s reopening, and a possible commodity market rally.”