With the ECB likely to act more restrictively overall, economists at Commerzbank see the Franc moderately weaker against the EUR over the course of the year.

EUR/CHF could remain below parity for the time being

“If the Franc weakens too much, foreign exchange interventions by the SNB are likely against the backdrop of the recent inflation development in Switzerland. In the short term, EUR/CHF could therefore remain below parity for the time being.”

“In the medium term, however, we see the CHF weakening moderately. This is because the ECB is likely to raise its key rate more than the SNB by the middle of the year, and since price pressures in Switzerland are likely to ease at the same time, the SNB should allow the Franc to weaken moderately against the EUR.”

Source: Commerzbank Research