Markets are once again forced to re-assess the risks of the banking crisis and that will drive much of the G10 FX swings this week. Still, monetary policy differentials seem to point more clearly to a higher EUR/USD, in the view of economists at ING.

Reassessing risks?

“While our general view favours a higher EUR/USD on the back of monetary policy divergence, last Friday brought a warning not to jump to the conclusion that this banking turmoil is turning into a US-only story – and therefore into a straight-line bullish EUR/USD. Still, a move to 1.10 in the coming weeks remains a very tangible possibility.”

“For this week, re-testing 1.0900 would already be a very welcome sign for EUR/USD bulls.”