• AUD/USD stalls this week’s bullish trend near the 100-day SMA, just ahead of the 0.6700 mark.
• A modest USD recovery from a one-year high turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind.
• Expectations for an imminent Fed rate-hike pause to cap the USD and lend support to the pair.

The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on its weekly gains recorded over the past three sessions and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses heading into the North American session on Friday. The pair, however, trades just a few pips below its highest level since February 24 touched on Thursday and is currently placed around the 0.6770-0.6775 area, nearly unchanged for the day.

A modest US Dollar (USD) bounce from a one-year low touched earlier this Friday is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair. The upside for the Greenback, however, remains capped amid firming expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its rate-hiking cycle amid signs of cooling inflationary pressures in the US. The bets were lifted by this week's release of softer consumer inflation figures and the Producer Price Index, which suggested that disinflation is progressing smoothly.

Apart from this, a generally positive risk tone might contribute to gains for the safe-haven buck and lend support to the risk-sensitive Aussie. Apart from this, the upbeat Australian jobs data on Thursday 
revived bets for a 25 bps rate hike at the next Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting in May and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying around the AUD/USD pair. That said, bulls might wait to move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), around the 0.6700 mark, before placing fresh bets.

Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales figures and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. This, along with the US bond yields and the broader market risk sentiment, might influence the USD price dynamics and provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to register strong weekly gains.

Technical levels to watch