• NZD/USD picks up bids to refresh intraday high, snaps two-day downtrend at six-week low.
• ANZ sentiment figures for April came in mixed, NZ PM Hipkins promises no extra tax in upcoming budget.
• Chatters about US debt ceiling, First Republic Bank and US-China tension prod bulls.
• US Q1 GDP needs to print downbeat figures to defend Kiwi pair’s latest recovery.

NZD/USD marches to 0.6140 heading into Thursday’s European session, extending the previous rebound from a six-week low to snap a two-day downtrend. In doing so, the Kiwi pair cheers the broad US Dollar weak amid mixed catalysts at home.

Earlier in the day, the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) released monthly figures for New Zealand’s (NZ) Activity Outlook and Business Confidence for April. While the former improved to -7.6% from -8.5%, versus -8.9% prior, the latter plummets to -43.8 compared to analysts’ estimation and previous readings of -43.4.

On the other hand, NZ Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said, “There will be no new tax everyone would have had to pay, like a cyclone levy, to fund the recovery,” per Stuff New Zealand.

It should be noted that the passage of a bill that enables the US policymakers to negotiate the extension of the debt ceiling joins the mixed US data and upbeat technology companies’ earnings to underpin cautious optimism in the market. That said, the US Durable Goods Orders rose for March but couldn’t overcome the fishy details of Consumer Confidence released previously.

Alternatively, fears of the US recession, banking sector fallout and the Sino-American tension prod the NZD/USD buyers. While the recently mixed US data and the odds of the Fed’s higher for longer rates keep the economic slowdown fears on the table, a slump in the First Republic Bank (FRB) price roils the mood. Further, comments from US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo renewed fears surrounding the US-China tussle. “Chinese cloud computing companies like Huawei Cloud and Alibaba Cloud could pose a threat to US security,’ Said US Commerce Secretary Raimondo per Reuters. The policymaker also vowed to review a request to add them to an export control list reported the news.

While portraying the mood, US Treasury bond yields remain directionless, grinding lower of late, whereas the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 4,080 by the press time, following a mixed close of Wall Street

Looking forward, the US first quarter (Q1) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), expected to ease to 2.0% on an annualized basis versus 2.6% prior, becomes crucial for the NZD/USD traders to watch amid receding hawkish concerns about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).

Technical analysis

A three-week-old descending resistance line, around 0.6160 by the press time, restricts the short-term upside of the Kiwi pair amid bearish MACD signals. That said, an upward-sloping support line from mid-November 2022, close to 0.6095, becomes crucial for the NZD/USD bears to watch for tightening the grip.