The Euro hovered near a one-year high vs. the US Dollar on Thursday. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading at 1.1020 as the market rallies in a short squeeze in the New York session. The following illustrates a bearish bias in a multi-timeframe analysis.
The rising wedge is a compelling feature on the longer-term charts. This is a bearish geometrical pattern and we can see the market has been driven back into shorts taken out in late March in a short squeeze. Perhaps we will see a long squeeze in the coming days?
We have the first layer of structure in the 1.0960s and this would be breaking the micro trendline to tip the bias further to the downside.
Zooming into the 4-hour charts, we have the M-formation which could mean that we will see a test of the neckline resistance near the 1.1030s before a strong test of the trendline support. An engulfment would be an encouraging feature for the bears in that regard.
On the hourly chart, we can see the thesis playing out in faster motion with the current bid in play. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement meets the neckline resistance. Everything above is trapped volume, so the long squeeze thesis is a reasonable one into 1.0950s stops and the week´s lows.
Monday and mid week longs are still in the money with stop losses below eyed.