Considering the recent price action, USD/JPY could still challenge the 137.90 region in the short-term horizon, comment Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang at UOB Group.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: “We expected USD to advance further yesterday but we noted that ‘deeply overbought conditions suggest a sustained rise above 137.90 is unlikely’. However, USD did not quite challenge 137.90 as it staged a surprisingly sharp pullback from 137.77 (low has been 136.30). Upward momentum has faded and USD has likely moved into a consolidation and it is likely to trade between 135.50 and 137.70 today.”

Next 1-3 weeks: “Yesterday (02 May, spot at 137.40), we held the view that USD is likely to strengthen further and the focus is at Mar high near 137.90. We did not quite expect the volatile price actions as USD rose to 137.77 in Asian trade and then plummeted to 136.30 in NY trade. While there is still room for USD to rise above 137.90, overbought conditions could lead to a couple of days of consolidation phase. In view of the increase in volatility, we are adjusting our ‘strong support’ level to 135.20 from 136.00. A break of the ‘strong support’ level could indicate that 137.90 is not coming into view for now.”