Economists at Rabobank see risk of a move lower in EUR/USD in the latter half of this year. 

USD likely to find support if the market prices out 2023 rate cuts

“In the months ahead, the EUR is likely to be adjusting to a softening Eurozone economy. This implies that the upside momentum in EUR/USD that has persisted since Q4 last year, may be nearing a peak.”

“If inflation remains sticky, it follows that Fed policy will have to work harder than in previous cycles to push inflation back to the 2% target. The USD is likely to find support if the market prices out 2023 rate cuts.” 

“We see risk of a move back to the EUR/USD 1.06 in H2 this year.”