Economists at TD Securities are biased to further USD/JPY downside.

Upcoming NFP report to sort of seal the deal for USD/JPY

“Note that USD/JPY's variability has become more closely synced with 10y rate spreads and in particular USTs. And like the receiving bias in the market, we expect that positioning for duration is asymmetric at this point in the cycle.”

“We place a lot of emphasis on the upcoming NFP report to sort of seal the deal for USD/JPY. There, we look for a slowing in job creation to 150K with an edge higher in the unemployment rate to 3.6%. We think a realization of our forecast on payrolls could help to deepen the stake that the market has on USD shorts. That likely means that USD/JPY may have more room to run to the downside.”