• USD/IDR prints the first daily loss in three, fades bounce off intraday low of late.
• Indonesia Exports, Imports ease in April, Trade Balance improves.
• US Dollar’s retreat amid cautious optimism also weighs on USD/IDR price.

USD/IDR clings to mild losses near 14,815 as it defends the early Asian session’s pullback from a 12-day-high after witnessing mixed Indonesia trade numbers on Monday. In doing so, the Indonesia Rupiah (IDR) pair also cheers the US Dollar’s retreat amid sluggish markets.

That said, Indonesia’s headline Trade Balance improves to 3.94B in April versus 3.38B market forecasts and 2.91B prior. However, the Exports and the Imports for the said month marked downbeat figures of -29.40% and -22.32% in that order, down from -11.33% and-6.26% respectively prior.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) eases from its five-week high to 102.65 amid cautious optimism in the market. The reason could be linked to comments from US President Joe Biden who said during the weekend that he expects to meet with Congressional leaders Tuesday for talks on a plan to raise the nation's debt limit and avoid a catastrophic default. Also taming the risk-off mood could be the comments from US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo while speaking at the CNN interview as he said, “The congressional staff has been "constructive," as the two sides seek a deal to avert a possible first-ever US default on June 1.”

It should be noted that the US policymakers’ delaying of the debt ceiling talks on Friday and downbeat US consumer sentiment, as well as inflation clues, weighed on the risk appetite previous day and allowed the US Dollar to remain firmer.

Against this backdrop, S&P500 Futures struggle near 4,138 after a two-day downtrend whereas the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields remain sidelined around 3.46% and 3.98 respectively, after rising the most in three days on Friday. It should be noted that Indonesia’s IDX Composite drops half a percent as we write.

Moving on, USD/IDR traders may witness further upside amid looming fears of the US default. However, Tuesday’s US debt ceiling talks will be the key to watching for immediate directions. Following that, US Retail Sales and a speech from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell should be eyed closely for a clear guide.

Technical analysis

Unless dropping back below the previous resistance line from mid-March, now support around 14,705, the USD/IDR buyers remain hopeful.