Economists at Rabobank share their USD/JPY forecasts for the coming months.

Adjust in YCC key to the forecasts

“While technically it is possible that the BoJ could be tightening policy when the Fed is easing, we would consider the odds of this scenario to be very small. If the BoJ cannot find the justification to adjust YCC this summer, it may find that the boat has sailed. Japan’s April CPI release could thus be instrumental in deciding whether July is in play for a policy adjustment or not.”

“We currently forecast USD/JPY at 135 in 3 months and 128 in 12 months. These forecasts assume a change in YCC this cycle.”