• US crude oil benchmark WTI retreats from a daily high of $73.51, faltering under the $73.00 mark, impacted by looming Fed interest rate hikes threatening economic growth.
• A surge in expectations for a hawkish Fed following upbeat US economic data, coupled with diminished recession likelihood, sees a 50% chance of a 25 bps rate hike, a significant increase from last month’s 8.3% odds.
• WTI’s dip eased by OPEC+ output cut hints, Saudi short-seller warnings, and Russia’s production stance; focus shifts to June 4 OPEC+ meeting.

Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, retreats after hitting a daily high of $73.51, tumbles below the $73.00 figure late in the New York session. At the time of writing, WTI is trading at $72.99, weighed by further interest rate hikes of the Federal Reserve, which could dent the prospects for economic growth.

Oil prices are weighed by the potential impact of further Fed tightening, despite OPEC+ output cut signals

After a solid tranche of US economic data from mid-May, investors began to price in a more hawkish Fed than initially expected. Upbeat Retail Sales, Industrial Production, GDP figures, and employment data eased the likelihood of a recession in the US. That’s reflected in the CME Fedwatch Tools, with a 50% chance of the Fed lifting rates 25 bps, up from 8.3% odds one month ago.

In the meantime, a risk-on impulse failed to underpin the WTI price, as news that the White House (WH) and the US Congress erupted that the US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy struck an agreement to raise the debt-ceiling so the country could fulfill its debt payments.

WTI’s fall was capped by last week’s comments from the Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman warning short-sellers that betting on falling oil prices to “watch out,” in a possible signal that OPEC+ may further cut output. Furthermore, comments from Russian oil officials, including Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, suggested that Russia is inclined to keep its current production without making changes.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, will meet on June 4.

WTI Technical Levels