USD/CAD remains in a technical bull trend that began in the middle of 2022. Momentum has stalled since Q4, with the pair trading sideways in a 1.3280 to 1.3880 range, but without a close below 1.3260, that bull trend remains in place, and we do not expect to see USD/CAD trade through that level.

In the coming months, we expect USD/CAD to continue trading around 1.35 with the majority of price action taking place within the 1.34-1.36 range. We remain of the view that a break to the upside is likely by year-end, although we don’t expect an extension beyond the 1.3880 topside of the broader range.