USD/JPY fell further than relative yields suggested after yield curve control bands were widened late last year. It has now corrected most of that move, as the chances of a further YCC this week are very remote. 

However, another change is likely in the coming months (we forecast one next month), and if we’re also close to the latest peak in US yields, it seems almost inevitable that we’ll see another big USD/JPY fall in the next few months.