EUR/JPY has pushed back up to 150. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook.
Any signs of US disinflation would allow risk assets to stay bid for longer, keeping EUR/JPY bid.
For the ECB, we and the market look for two more 25 bps hikes (June and July) taking the deposit rate to 3.75%. Our team also looks for the first ECB cut in 2Q24.
Unless some financial crisis emerges, it now looks like EUR/JPY can stay stronger for longer. Alternatively, some independent BoJ tightening would have to be the bearish game changer here.