Impact of falling raw material prices on CPI will appear with a lag of about nine months.

Impact of falling raw material prices will likely begin to appear in CPI data for July onward.

Focus is on goods prices around summer.

If goods prices do not fall around summer, we may have to revise our baseline scenario that consumer inflation will slow back below 2% around middle of current fiscal year.

If there is a global recession, that would put big downward pressure on Japan's prices so BoJ will have to keep easy policy.

If overseas growth rebounds and pushes up domestic prices, we will of course move to a phase of gauging the timing of a policy shift.

Personally see it hard to make a strong call on inflation outlook at next policy meeting in July.

What we most fear is a premature policy shift that would put Japan back to deflation.