Ulrich Leuchtmann, Head of FX and Commodity Research at Commerzbank, analyzes TRY outlook following last week’s Turkish central bank (CBRT) policy decision.
What's left now? Last Thursday's 650 bps rate hike art weighed in the balances, and art found wanting. There's nothing left – one might think – that could prevent a complete collapse of the Lira.
If my fear is correct – that a credible sustainable turnaround in monetary policy is no longer possible – then the only option left is a harsh version of capital controls, combined with currency rationing. I sincerely hope it is my lack of imagination that I cannot think of a more benign development.