EUR/USD has been capped at the 78.6% retracement of the 2022/2023 fall at 1.0998, now also the location of near-term downtrend and with the 10yr US/Germany bond yields spread seen in the process of constructing a large base we believe EUR/USD may be in the process of building a large top.

We take a negative bias looking for a fall back to the low of last week at 1.0835 initially, then a test of the uptrend from last September at 1.0778/74. A break below this latter area is needed to add weight to a topping story for a test of the 1.0732 next, then the 1.0634 May low.

Resistance is seen at 1.0934/43 initially, with 1.0998 ideally capping on a closing basis.