The 2-year rate spread between the Eurozone and the US is smaller today than it was when EUR/USD was at 1.25 17 years ago. EUR/USD is back where it was in 2015, after the Draghi devaluation.

The market can see the ECB normalise policy but is concerned about economic weakness. It can see the Fed tighten but having failed to see the US tightening cause a recession yet, will soon have stopped worrying that one will ever arrive. You don’t need to read your children a lot of fairy tales to know how that plays out.