24-hour view: We highlighted yesterday that EUR was under mild downward pressure and could edge lower but “is unlikely to break 1.0835.” We added, “there is another support at 1.0855.” Our view was not wrong as EUR fell to a low of 1.0849. While there is no significant increase in momentum, the risk for EUR remains on the downside. This time around, EUR could dip below 1.0835, possibly testing the next major support at 1.0805. The downside risk is intact as long as EUR stays below 1.0895 (minor resistance is at 1.0775).

Next 1-3 weeks: Yesterday (05 Jul, spot at 1.0880), we indicated that the bias for EUR is tilted to the downside. However, we were of the view that “any decline is likely to face solid support at 1.0835, ahead of 1.0805.” EUR then fell to a low of 1.0849. Downward momentum has improved, and the chance of EUR dropping to 1.0805 has increased. Overall, only a breach of 1.0925 (‘strong resistance’ level previously at 1.0950) would suggest EUR is not weakening further.