Headline inflation has moderated in recent months to around 4% in May. This was helped by lower food and energy prices. It is back to the middle of RBI’s 2-6% inflation target. It provides scope for RBI to stay on hold for the foreseeable future. 

There’s no urgency for another hike. Nevertheless, RBI would need to stay vigilant on a potential reversal in food prices. It would need to keep a close eye on the upcoming monsoon season and the underlying cost pressures. 

The strong growth picture, stable inflation, and net equity inflows are all contributing to a relatively stable INR. 

USD/INR continues to hold within the 81-83 range since the start of the year.