24-hour view: Yesterday, we held the view that NZD “could retest the 0.6260 level before the risk of a more sustained rebound increases.” Instead of “testing 0.6260”, NZD plunged to a 0.6225 before rebounding. The rebound in severely oversold conditions suggests that NZD is unlikely to weaken further. Today, NZD is more likely to consolidate and trade between 0.6235 and 0.6305. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our update from yesterday (19 Jul, spot at 0.6295) still stands. As highlighted, NZD appears to have moved into a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade in a range of 0.6210/0.6370 for the time being.