We expect the central bank to continue the normalisation of monetary policy despite recent market volatility, especially in the Forint.

We expect the central bank to replicate the decision it made last month and cut the quick deposit tender rate by another 100 bps, bringing the effective rate to 15%. Similarly, we anticipate 100 bps cuts to the one-day FX swap tender and the overnight repo rate.

We think the market is pushing NBH to cut rates at a faster pace and thus the hawkish tone should be a boost going back to 370 EUR/HUF.