Wider yield spreads versus much of the rest of the world have left the Yen as the weakest major currency this year (down 5.5% versus the USD). Economists at Scotiabank analyze USD/JPY outlook.
The significant accumulation of speculative and hedge fund shorts and the JPY’s still relatively cheap valuation leaves the door open to short-term gains if yield spreads compress somewhat.
July price action so far suggests an important technical reversal is perhaps developing around the USD’s June peak at 145. Major, medium-term USD support sits at 135 which may be about the limit of JPY gains in the near-term, however.
USD/JPY – Q3-23 135 Q4-23 135 Q1-24 130 Q2-24 130