USD/JPY is seen keeping a bumpy trade within the 138.50-141.95 range in the next few weeks, comment UOB Group’s Economist Lee Sue Ann and Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang.

Key Quotes

24-hour view: Last Friday, we held the view that USD could test the critical support at 138.50 but “it is unclear for now if it can maintain a foothold below this level.” We did not anticipate the volatile price actions as USD swung wildly in a wide range of 138.05/141.18 before ending the day on a strong note at 141.15 (+1.23%). The choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. USD could continue to trade in a choppy manner, but likely in a narrower range of 139.70/141.60. 

Next 1-3 weeks: We indicated last Friday (28 Jul, spot at 139.40) that “downward momentum is beginning to build again.” We also indicated that USD “must break clearly below the critical support at 138.50 before further weakness is likely.” While USD broke below 138.50, it rebounded strongly from 138.05. The choppy price actions and wide intraday range have resulted in a mixed outlook. For the time being, USD could trade in a choppy manner between 138.50 and 141.95