With interest rates facing upwards pressure on YCC flexibility while also being kept in check by special operations, investors will need to keep an eye on where 10-year interest rates end up actually settling. Nonetheless, when USD/JPY hits 142, market participants will try pushing it up to 145, just like they did between the end of June and the start of July. 

With major policy events out of the way in Japan, the US and Europe, the pair’s movements will also cool off as overseas markets enter holiday mode. 

One potential risk involves the pair rising sharply amid thin trading on an upswing in US economic indicators.