We have adjusted our forecasts, as inflation in the UK, which is still quite high for the time being, should maintain rate hike expectations for the BoE, from which the Pound should benefit. At the same time, recession concerns for the eurozone should weigh on the EUR.

In the medium term, however, we continue to expect an upward movement in EUR/GBP. 

We expect the BoE to cut its key rate again in the middle of next year in view of the weak economic development. In contrast, we expect the ECB to leave its key rate unchanged, contrary to the market's belief. This should make the ECB more hawkish, which will make the EUR more attractive against the Pound.