The outlook for the EUR remains positive in the longer run but recent positioning/sentiment data has highlighted the fact that the long EUR trade is already a little crowded which may be retraining the EUR’s ability to advance without stronger incentives.

Technical pointers provide some conflicting signals for the EUR. The short-term pattern of trade looks bearish after the EUR’s strong reversal from the intraday high on Thursday. However, losses failed to develop in a meaningful way, with spot still (relatively) well-supported against rising trend and MA support in around 1.0925.