The further 50 bps of rate increase we forecast is less than that currently implied by market pricing, while more broadly we do not view a combination of low growth, high inflation and high interest rates as particularly favorable for the UK currency. 

We continue to view the Pound as an underperformer over the medium term. We see the GBP/USD pair falling to 1.26 or below by Q1-2024, and recovering only very modestly to 1.29 by the end of next year.