We forecast the Forint to regain some ground by the end of the year because inflation is likely to moderate faster than the pace at which MNB will cut rates, and the real interest rate will therefore become less negative – in this window, we see EUR/HUF in the 375 range.

But, we forecast a weaker Forint subsequently in 2024 because EU relations and monetary policy will remain fundamental negative factors for the HUF.