24-hour view: Yesterday, we expected AUD to rise further. Instead of rising further, AUD fell sharply to a low of 0.6413. The sharp drop has room to extend, but it is unlikely to challenge the major support at 0.6365 (there is another support at 0.6390). Resistance is at 0.6440, followed by 0.6460. 

Next 1-3 weeks: We noted yesterday (24 Aug, spot at 0.6480) that “upward momentum is building, and AUD could rebound further to 0.6520, possibly 0.6540.” We did not expect the sharp drop that sent AUD plummeting to a low of 0.6413 in NY trade. While our ‘strong support’ level at 0.6410 has not been clearly breached, the buildup in momentum has fizzled out. Instead of rebounding further, AUD is more likely to trade in a range of 0.6365/0.6500 for the time being. Looking ahead, if AUD breaks clearly below 0.6365, it could trigger a decline to 0.6300.