After the hawkish-sounding minutes from the July FOMC meeting, Powell may come across as a little more measured. Some of his colleagues appear to think that the Fed has done enough but Powell might want to leave the door open to a little more tightening or stress ‘high for longer’ risks in his comments – if only to keep the Fed’s options open and dampen market expectations for rate cuts ahead.

If September really is ‘live’, he really should encourage swaps pricing to get a little more aggressive, with a 25 bps hike on the 20th reflected as only a 20% risk.

The USD looks more or less fairly priced for the status quo on rates here; a clearly hawkish message from Powell today will lift the USD but a more nuanced approach to the outlook may mean more USD range trading, with the broader risk tone defining short-term USD movement.