Indonesia recorded its 40th consecutive month of surplus amid a larger decline in imports than exports. The latest trade surplus of USD3.1bn in Aug 2023 is a marked increase from USD1.3bn in Jul and higher than consensus expectation of USD1.5bn.

All in all, lower total imports, though bottoming out, continue to suggest a more moderate pace of investment. Together with slower exports, consistent with the outlook of global slowdown, will render Indonesia’s trade balance to register smaller surplus in the immediate term, before potentially turning into slight deficit as delayed import demand might come only closer to the middle of next year.