The Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep the Bank Rate (key policy rate) unchanged at 5.25%. EUR/GBP initially moved higher but partly retraced the move later on. Economists at Danske Bank analyze the pair’s outlook.
The BoE decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 5.25% with forward guidance remaining broadly unchanged.
We think that this marks the peak in the Bank Rate of 5.25%, although wage growth and service inflation remain a joker.
We continue to see relative rates as a moderate positive for EUR/GBP, although GBP has largely decoupled from moves in relative rates the past month.
We expect the relative performance of the Euro area and the UK economy to be a driver, targeting a moderate rise in EUR/GBP to 0.88 the next year.