24-hour view: We indicated yesterday that “The sharp drop from the NY high could extend, but it is unlikely to break the strong support at 0.6410.” We added, “The next support is at 0.6385.” AUD dropped more than expected and came close to breaking ‘the next support at 0.6385’ as it dropped to a low of 0.6386. Despite rebounding from the low, the weakness in AUD has not stabilised. Today, AUD could retest the 0.6385 level before a more sizeable and sustained rebound is likely. The major support at 0.6355 is highly unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.6430, followed by 0.6450. 

Next 1-3 weeks: About a week ago (12 Sep, spot at 0.6425), we held the view that AUD could rebound further, but any advance is expected to face solid resistance at 0.6485. After AUD rose to 0.6511 and pulled back sharply, we highlighted yesterday (21 Sep, spot at 0.6440) that “upward momentum is beginning to slow, and if AUD breaks below 0.6410, it would mean that AUD is not advancing further.” AUD then broke below 0.6410 before rebounding from a low of 0.6386. AUD appears to have entered a consolidation phase, and it is likely to trade between 0.6355 and 0.6480 for the time being.