Economists at ANZ Bank analyze NZD/USD outlook.
We are cautious of the recent turn in economic data surprises in New Zealand. The economy still faces deeply negative real rates which will limit a large upside for the NZD/USD pair in the near term.
Globally, with the USD remaining supported till year-end and slower economic growth in China, there will be few global drivers for the NZD.
We think the NZD/USD will remain range bound between 0.58-0.59 until year-end.
We are bearish on NZD crosses and expect the AUD/NZD to be capped at 1.10 in 2023 and forecast the pair to appreciate to 1.14 by the end of 2024.