24-hour view: We expected EUR to rise further to 1.0595 last Friday. However, we held the view that “the major resistance at 1.0630 is highly unlikely to come into view.” In early NY trade, EUR plummeted to a low of 1.0481 and then surged to a high of 1.0599. There does not appear to be any clear directional bias for now. Today, EUR could trade in a range, probably between 1.0500 and 1.0600. 

Next 1-3 weeks: Our view from last Friday (06 Oct, spot at 1.0545) still stands. As highlighted, the current price action in EUR is likely part of a rebound that could extend to 1.0630 but is unlikely to break clearly above this level. The mild upward pressure is intact as long as EUR stays above 1.0460 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from last Friday).