While the Israel-Hamas war will drive haven flows towards Gold, our positive view for the price hinges on the Fed rate cycle nearing an end. This will result in a retreating US yield, reducing the opportunity cost of Gold. 

Haven-induced upside in the USD would not have a negative impact on the Gold price. We hold our long-term bearish stance for the USD, which will support Gold going into 2024. 

Central bank purchases are likely to be strong, and demand for physical Gold gets a seasonal boost in Q4.